Okay, imagine you’re a Program Recovery Manager stepping into a project that’s gone off the rails. The client is breathing down your neck, the team is demoralized, and the deadline is a distant memory. Your mission: to develop a recovery plan, complete with realistic dates, and convince everyone that you can actually pull it off.

But here’s the catch: accurate estimation in a recovery situation is like trying to predict the future while blindfolded. You know the project is behind, you know there are problems to fix, but how long will it really take to get back on track?

This is where many recovery efforts stumble. Optimism bias creeps in, pressure from stakeholders mounts, and suddenly, you’re promising miracles you can’t deliver. But fear not! There’s a way to navigate this treacherous terrain.

The Root of Estimation Evil:

In my experience, the biggest culprit behind faulty estimations is a lack of understanding. People often underestimate the true scope of the work involved. They throw out vague timelines like “a month to fix the problems” without truly grasping what that entails.

Think of it like this: you’re planning a road trip from Sydney to Perth. You might say, “Oh, it’ll take about a week.” But have you factored in the distance, the road conditions, the potential detours, and the need for rest stops? Without a detailed itinerary, your “week-long trip” could easily turn into a month-long ordeal.

The Spreadsheet Savior:

That’s where the spreadsheet technique comes in. It forces you to break down the recovery effort into its granular components. Instead of vague generalizations, you have a clear picture of every task, every dependency, and every resource required.

Think of it like creating a detailed map for your road trip. You plot every leg of the journey, every fuel stop, every overnight stay. This granular view helps you accurately estimate the total travel time and avoid unpleasant surprises along the way.

Walking the Tightrope:

Now, here’s the crucial part: involve your team in this estimation process. Don’t just dictate deadlines from on high. Walk them through the spreadsheet, discuss each task, and challenge their assumptions.

If someone says it’ll take a month to “correct problems,” ask them to break it down. What specific problems need to be addressed? How long will each one take? By dissecting the work in this way, you’ll arrive at a more accurate estimate.

The Power of Ownership:

This collaborative approach has another benefit: it fosters ownership. When the team participates in the estimation process, they’re more likely to commit to the deadlines. They understand the reasoning behind the schedule, and they’re invested in its success.

The Payoff:

Yes, this process takes time. You might even need to pause all other work for a day or two to focus on creating this detailed recovery map. But trust me, the payoff is worth it.

Accurate estimation gives you credibility with the client, builds confidence within the team, and sets the stage for a successful recovery. It’s about confronting the crystal ball head-on, replacing vague guesses with data-driven projections, and ultimately, delivering on your promises.